Tale of the Tape at the End of NFL Regular Season
At the 11th hour, the playoff hopes of a handful of teams are still in the balance. We weigh up who's in and who's out.
The Snap Count is a weekly column by Emilio Calderon and Caleb Catlin where they react to the previous week of NFL games and share their thoughts. In the end, they share what they think are the games to watch for next week’s slate.
Happy Saturday, friends. If you’re reading this, that means it’s officially Week 18, the end of the regular season.
Funny enough, it also marks the second time this season that I came down with something nasty that made me shrivel up on my couch and turn into a child for more than 24 hours. Thankfully, this is a two-person team and Caleb has done a lot of heavy lifting for us this week, i.e. everything after this you see is written by him. (Say thank you to Caleb.)
To celebrate the end of the regular season, Caleb dishes on a few teams who have surprised him this season, in ways both good and bad. In the end, we talk about the games to keep an eye on this season as we decide who’s in and who’s out for this year’s playoffs. Let’s ride. — Emilio
The Packers Are Back(?)
looks around Who knew the Green Bay Packers were going to stumble into the playoffs? Maybe there is some real truth in the alleged shadowy NFL script writers. Maybe I underestimated the value in letting a quarterback sit in the pressure cooker as Rodgers tried to make miracles happen in the years prior. But Green Bay could legitimately upset anybody from the higher seeding.
They scraped by the Detroit Lions in their second matchup, watching enough football suggests that any thing goes in divisional games. Then you look at the questionable NFC East teams: The Dallas Cowboys are a good football team but are especially prone to weird hiccups, especially in the post season. Additionally, the Eagles have had bad vibes written all over them since the first week but I could never put my finger on what it was. I could pin a little blame on an uneven Jalen Hurts season, where the talent is still strong but some of his worse tendencies shined in his second year starting (never throwing towards the middle, opting for making plays with his legs when a target isn’t obvious.) I could magnify the poor defense, where management somehow thought career loser Matt Patricia, who failed as defensive AND offensive coordinator, would be effective in calling their plays. I could even draw skepticism towards Nick Sirriani’s integrity as a head coach, an arrogant jackass who may have finally run out of childish tricks. The discipline of the Green Bay Packers allows for one of these contenders to be knocked off if they have their way.
They have to beat the Chicago Bears to pull this. I am stunned that they didn’t crater into another high draft pick but they came away with a respectable 7 wins. And as I mentioned earlier, these divisional games have taught me never to assume that a bad team can’t pull a win against their rivals. Justin Fields has a real opportunity to shake up Chicago’s plans for a new QB this offseason by smacking Green Bay out of contention on Lambeau Field.
The NFC South Blues
The fate of the NFC South lies with with the worst team in football. Facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, the Panthers hold all the cards in who moves forward to the front of their division. The kicker is they aren’t competing for a wild card spot at all. In a simple outcome, Tampa closes the casket on a pitiful Carolina season and comfortably seal the 4th seed in the playoffs. The NFC South has been anything but simple.
Tampa is at the head of the charge for a reason. They have had a pretty difficult schedule and there were plenty of question marks outside of their receiving core. What is the Baker Mayfield rental going to do? Where do they reasonably slot on defense? Will they ever care about the run game? If nothing else, Baker would be Comeback Player of the Year if Damar Hamlin didn’t almost die on the field. His floor is still a wildly erratic QB with misplaced confidence and poor field management. His ceiling this year has been fantastic though. Their shootout with the Houston Texans, even in a loss, showed Baker with an impressive arm and patience and poise in the pocket to allow Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton to open up the field. Are they still complicated on defense? They sure are scrappy for a team ranked 25th in yards averaged. Are they still bad at running the football? You’re damn right.
They dropped a bad divisional game against Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints, who can weasel their way into the 4 seed too if they handle business against the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa drops the ball. In a really bizarre way, Carr’s pension for the checkdown and his fleeting ability to get the ball to Chris Olave and Michael Thomas really exposed Tampa’s wishy washy defense. If Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael’s unimaginative coaching can beat them, who’s to say they shouldn’t win out over the Bucs?
A similar statement can be said about the Atlanta Falcons and their circus act. Rather than pursuing a worthwhile QB (glares in Lamar Jackson), they trotted out the incompetent Desmond Ridder and the mostly competent Taylor Heinicke to lead their offense. To make matters worse, Arthur Smith might be the worst head coach in football, his whole philosophy seems on isolating good playmakers as diversions in order to open up opportunities for American Deli workers to catch the football instead. It is truly a maddening experience to see guys like Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London get flexed out of plays to favor the unknown. I don’t know where Arthur Smith gets off playing the Apollo Creed role trying to find his Rocky Balboas but when you have diamonds, you don’t need to sell coal. Still, because of the weak division, this gives this messy Atlanta team an out if they beat New Orleans and Carolina beats Tampa. The fate of the NFC South is entirely dependent on how much the Panthers want to play football.
Woes in South Beach
It might be cooked in Miami. I genuinely think the bipolar Buffalo Bills could knock them off Sunday night. They’re hungry to make a statement heading into the postseason, that despite their uneven play, countless injuries, and increasing age, they can go blow for blow with the best of them. Not to mention, Buffalo eviscerated Miami in October 48-20.
The story of the Dolphins season has been their inability to topple real playoff contenders, no matter how flawed and beatable they look. On top of their first thrashing at the hands of Buffalo, they drop a 2 touchdown loss in Philadelphia. They barely scrape past the Dallas Cowboys 22-20. They just got demoralized by Lamar Jackson and co. in Baltimore. If they lose to Buffalo next week, it firmly places them in 6th seed to face the Kansas City Chiefs, another puzzling team they lost to in November.
It’s not out of a lack of talent. If anything, you could argue the injury bug bit them bad this year. They lost Xavien Howard and Bradley Chubb last week against the Ravens. Jalen Ramsey came back from injury in late October and his effectiveness has noticeably waned. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have been in and out of the lineup.
But it’s a much deeper issue in their defensive punch as a whole. Good QBs have been feasting on their secondary all year, especially those who can exploit their linebackers on foot when the secondary actually locks in on their targets. The offense is explosive but Baltimore proved that with enough discipline and strong play-calling, they can be neutralized.
Our Games to Watch for Week x
Emilio’s Pick: Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5), 8:20PM, Sun
For obvious reasons, the primetime game both literally and metaphorically. There was a point in the season where the Bills’ playoff hopes seemed close to dead and a point where people thought the Dolphins were en route to having potentially the greatest season by an offense we’ve ever seen. Fast forward to Week 18, both narratives dead and buried.
It doesn’t feel like the firing of former OC Ken Dorsey actually did anything for Buffalo per se but Caleb and I have frequently commented that the Bills either have maxed out their success with this roster or they have bad vibes (or both). Either way, they’ve now put themselves in position to not only be in the playoffs but even be the two-seed. More than firing Dorsey, the two moves that saved them this season were running the ball more and picking up Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline.
As for Miami, they finally got their signature win of the season over Dallas then proceeded to get molliwopped by the Ravens. I don’t know what else there is to say about this Miami team other than man, they just need to fuckin’ win! It seems clear that they have the talent on both sides of the ball to go as far as the Super Bowl and even lift the Lombardi but at few points this season has this roster ever met in the middle.
This is the Bad Vibes Bowl. Someone has to finally overcome it or maybe it’ll be really funny. Either way, I’ll be glued to the TV for this one.
Caleb’s Pick: Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7), 8:15PM, Sat
I’ve been rather disinterested in the affairs of the AFC South, largely because the Jaguars are hucksters with big names, that look better on paper than in practice, and a head coach with lots of question marks, success and all. Essentially, they are the Atlanta Hawks of the National Football League. No matter what happens to them, I do not think they are long for this postseason.
The Colts and the Texans, however, have real juice. I have raved about the Houston Texans all year, they are years ahead of schedule. CJ Stroud is so good that he was in MVP discussions as a rookie. Tank Dell has shown to be one of the most explosive wideouts in the league. Dalton Schultz earned his new contract this offseason in spades. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has been such a whiz orchestrating plays for Stroud, he may have earned himself a head coaching gig if teams paid close enough attention. Demeco Ryans really instilled a fiery culture in Houston, where the team, flaws and all, always have a chance to win a football game. It’s incredible that they could be a real Super Bowl level threat if they play their cards right and Stroud doesn’t hit a slump.
On the other side, the Colts could take the division by being yet another Scrappy, Underdog Football Team™. When Anthony Richardson went down, I imagined they would punt contention away in hopes of furthering rookie development, establishing identity, and collecting draft capital. Alas, the Colts are not that kind of football team and Gardner Minshew has been mostly respectable in leading them. His play can be really ugly, take their October game against the Jaguars with 329 yards on 55 attempts, 3 interceptions and a revolting 21.8 QBR. But alongside a potent rushing combo of Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor, the Colts have assured any contender has a tough game against them, the Texans included. This should be a bloodbath.
All statistics cited from Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats, unless stated otherwise.
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