The Snap Count's Pre-Trade Deadline Extravaganza
Your favorite American footballistas bomb atomically, dishing out knowledge on the teams and players whose fates could be changed by this time next week.
The Snap Count is a weekly column by Emilio Calderon and Caleb Catlin where they react to the previous week of NFL games and share their thoughts. In the end, they share what they think are the games to watch for next week’s slate.
Okay, I know there’s been a lot of fuss about how weird and fun this season has been so far but week 7 dialed it up to 11.
The Cleveland Browns defense, AKA the best defense in the league, approximately three days after I rightfully anointed them as the best defense in the league, gave up 38 points to Gardner Minshew’s Colts. Also, Deshaun Watson is bad. They won in spite of this.
The Packers and Rams had two of the stupidest losses of the season so far. I was mildly optimistic on the Packers and still am but sitting at 2-4 behind both the Lions and Vikings, they’re just gonna have to accept this season as an unofficial freshman development year of sorts for Jordan Love.
As for the Rams, ironically, they actually did run the ball really well but their pass game was a horror show. They had little to no rhythm in the short game and needed some really tough, big plays out of all three of Nacua, Kupp, and Atwell to take the lead in this game. If you haven’t seen how this game ends, the 4th quarter is hilarious.
The Lions came crashing down to earth but oddly, it taught us more about the team that smacked them more than it did about them.
After a relatively stat-quiet first few weeks, Lamar Jackson went off for 357 yards with 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) on 21/27 passes. Not bad going against a defense that was top 10 in both yards and points allowed up until this game. I had concerns about how this skill group would turn out, especially at running back, but they seem to be figuring it out with time. (I’m still concerned but we’ll get to that later.)
The Bills and the Chargers lost in predictably disappointing-but-not-surprising fashion. Two weeks after Caleb anointed Mac Jones as the worst QB in pro football, he dropped 2 touchdowns on the Bills and gave us a Mike Gesicki griddy on National Tight Ends Day. No offense to my Buffalo friends and family, I wish the best for y’all, but I just can’t take this team seriously.
As for the Chargers, the writing is on the wall — i.e. the writing that has been aggressively splattered everywhere in bright red paint for approximately a year now — and it’s only a matter of when, not if, offices will get cleared out in Costa Mesa. I guess that’s some heavy pot calling the kettle black vibes coming from me. Point is both the Bills and Chargers have bad vibes.
The Niners lost again? To the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings? They seemed dominant enough over the early part of the season that I wasn’t worried about them and had them penciled in to the NFC Championship but I’m starting to reconsider. I need to see Purdy win some games under pressure.
The joke here is at the end of the day, we’re back where we were at the end of last season: the Chiefs rise to the top and the Eagles claw their way behind them. Credit where credit is due though because Mahomes, awesome as he was against the Chargers, has taken a backseat this season to the Chiefs’ defense, who have quietly been one of the three or four best units in the league. Chris Jones is gonna get his money, man.
I totally did this long ass intro on a whim because I didn’t have anything funny to say at first. It turns out recapping games is very fun. If this was in any way insightful or entertaining, I’m happy for you as a reader. If not, oh, that sucks. I might keep doing this! I might not! You’ll have to read next week to find out!
This week, Caleb and I are tackling the potential movers and shakers before the trade deadline. This year’s deadline lands on Halloween, so we’ll get to see which grown men get to have themselves a nice treat or which grown men need to pack their shit up and leave. Let’s ride. — Emilio
Please God, Move These Players at the Deadline
Nothing is worse than seeing a good player trapped in an empty husk of a football team. It’s torture to watch high level players in low level environments, I can’t imagine how maddening it has to be playing the worst form of the sport you love. Here’s to hoping my manifestation will help some of these players find new homes where football actually matters. I won’t include players who are reportedly content with their current situation, e.g. Saquon Barkley. Good luck with that pal. This is for the real ones.
Derrick Henry: The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that there isn’t “significant interest” in one of the 10 best running backs in the league. Forgive me if I’m not buying this smoke screen. Henry is on an expiring contract for the worst team in the already anemic AFC South. Sure, he has some significant mileage, any good running back does, let alone the lifeblood of the Tennessee offense. The Buccaneers desperately need an inspired run game to pair with their dynamic receiver tandem. The Ravens should also inquire after losing JK Dobbins in their 3-headed monster backfield.
Any (Decent) Denver Bronco: The Panthers are yet to win a game this season and I still can’t help but feel like Sean Payton’s squad is the absolute worst. When the Dolphins pity you enough to spare the history books and barely survive Chicago Bears games, there might not be a single player worth saving but there is real talent on this deeply unmotivated roster. Ever the Cowboys skeptic, Dallas should still remain competitive and shoot for Patrick Surtain II to replace the hole Trevon Diggs’ ACL injury left behind. Baltimore should remain diligent in the WR market eyeing Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton, ditto for Cleveland.
Justin Jefferson: Jettas has to walk in that Minnesota front office and say it’s Kirk Cousins or me. It’s insane that this team gave Cousins a no-trade clause in the first place. He’s always been notably average and dicey on the big stage but this year has been brutal. It is absolutely criminal that the best receiver in the league is no man’s land. Pairing him with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall would be magical. Stroud and Jefferson in Houston would immediately become one of the best QB/WR duos in the league. At the very least, get him in Pittsburgh for a team that’s interested in competing every year.
The Washington Commanders’ Defensive Line: How are you ranked 29th in points allowed this season but are tied for 6th in sacks this year? It figures why Jonathan Allen is cursing up a storm to the media when the secondary is letting Tyrod Taylor light them ablaze despite 4 sacks. With Montez Sweat and Chase Young on expiring deals and Allen furious with continued mediocrity, contenders should be rushing to sell draft capital. The Dolphins would have to get creative to pull these deals off but this would create a big splash to a defense slowly getting their guys all healthy. The Jaguars could use another edge-rusher next to Josh Allen. — Caleb
The Teams Who Should Buy (and What They Should Buy)
If you follow any football accounts, you’ve probably seen the following names and/or unimaginative headlines a bajillion times: Derrick Henry, “Cowboys need to…”, Jerry Jeudy, “Broncos aren’t selling”, Chase Young, “Vikings are pushing…”, Danielle Hunter. Yada yada, yeah yeah, you know the deal. We’re here to have a little more fun than that.
I’m interested in teams that I think have solid to outside playoff chances — sorry Giants or Patriots fans, you’re not here — and I wanna know where they can improve outside of injuries. For example, the Rams and Dolphins’ primary concerns, offensive line and secondary respectively, are a result of injury and there isn’t another glaring need or area where they could dramatically improve with the assets on hand.
On the flip side, there are teams on the bubble that could make moves but it would be risky or it just doesn’t fit how I see their circumstances. I’m thinking about a team like the Texans, who I am very high on but shouldn’t push the envelope too much too early on with Stroud, or the Bengals, who are still at .500 and, health permitting, are good enough with their current unit to go on a run.
For this column, I’m choosing one or two positions where I think reinforcements could be enough to push them ahead in the playoff standings. While cap space is an issue for a lot of teams, let’s presume teams can negotiate in good faith picking up contracts to be able to offload contracts.
Teams records listed are going in to Week 7 with divisional record in brackets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-3 (1-1) | Need: RB
Let’s start in the NFC with an easy one. The Buccaneers are a classic middle-of-the-road team, a lot of good and not a lot of great or bad. They do have one very glaring weakness and that’s in the backfield.
The RB market is tough to parse because of the controversy with how undervalued the position is. Derrick Henry is the one name rightfully getting tossed around but he’s stuck between a rock and a hard place where the in-teams may not have the capital or assets to make the move and he may not want to move to a bubble team like Tampa Bay.
It’s a tough political move but they would get a lot of miles out of Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s clearly behind the Robinson-Allgeier duo and he gives the Bucs more versatility as both a runner and a pass catcher. That’s assuming Todd Bowles and Dave Canales have any interest in diversifying their run game. If they’re committed to their vanilla power run, Samaje Perine or Dalvin Cook could probably be had for a 7th rounder.
Atlanta Falcons, 4-3 (2-0) | Need: LB
Speaking of Atlanta, they don’t have a lot of weaknesses, even if I’m still not a fan of Desmond Ridder. I liked Tampa Bay more than them very early on this season but Atlanta’s defense has really come together. The addition of Jessie Bates has really elevated their secondary but they could use help in the front 7.
They’re getting quality pass rushing out of cornerstone Grady Jarrett and the vintage Calais Campbell but they’re not getting much production from their current OLB group. They have some quality options to shop from in the NFC North.
In Green Bay, Preston Smith is still getting his fair share of snaps (65.3%) and is under contract until 2026 but in his age 30 year, the Packers may want to move on considering they already have Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness. They could also kick the tires on Detroit’s linebacker unit. Julian Okwara has taken less than 50 snaps this year and Jalen Reeves-Maybin has been relegated to special teams duty; both players are on expiring deals.
Baltimore Ravens, 5-2 (1-1) | Need: WR
Over in the AFC, let’s talk the North. Even after a strong showing against the Lions, I’m still not entirely convinced by the Ravens offense outside of Lamar Jackson. I actually think Hill and Edwards are fine at RB but I can’t see this receiver corps making an impact down the stretch. Andrews aside, I like Zay Flowers but he’s nowhere close to a WR1 yet and the others, including OBJ in his condition, aren’t steady.
With Andrews and Flowers accounted for, Baltimore could use another steady hand and don’t necessarily have to be picky with who. Jerry Jeudy is the hot name being touted around but it’s unsure how high Denver’s asking price would be; if they’re looking at other speed guys, there’s some reasonable risk in Terrace Marshall or Darnell Mooney. If they just want a steady WR2/3, they could also look into Hunter Renfrow or Kendrick Bourne.
My favorite hypothetical which won’t happen but would be extra spicy, even as a rental, Tee Higgins. More than Higgins or Jeudy though, the other Bronco I think is the best case scenario. Courtland Sutton gives them more height and athleticism out wide to pair with Flowers’ speed and YAC potential.
Pittsburgh Steelers, 4-2 (2-0) | Need: OL
Right on Baltimore’s heels in the AFC North are the omnipresent Steelers. They don’t really pass the vibe check and aren’t impressing by eye or by the numbers but they have enough upside and assets that I think they can really make a go at the playoffs.
I don’t think he has a high ceiling but with better structure and Matt Canada becoming a truck driver, I think Kenny Pickett can become the new average NFL QB. (I swear that’s a compliment.) This O-line had its best game of the season against the Rams, though it should be noted they were without LB Ernest Jones. Isaac Seumalo is their rock at LG but they have liabilities everywhere else.
Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff are attractive options who could play tackle on either side. Williams has played 100% of offensive snaps but it couldn’t hurt to kick the tires after last offseason’s trade request media circus. Reiff recently had an IR stint so his health could be a concern but it could also drive the price down.
C Mason Cole has had a rough season compared to last so upgrading at guard could be more attractive. Mike Onwenu and Ezra Cleveland are both being shopped around according to reports but their prices could be relatively high for linemen. Hala Vaitai has fallen to the backup spot in Detroit and could be picked up for a Day 3 pick.
Indianapolis Colts, 3-4 (2-2) | Need: DB
In the AFC South, a battle rages on between two of the top ten scoring offenses in the league. I had to put that out there because it feels insane to say that about the Colts and the Jaguars. No offense.
Even without Anthony Richardson, the offense has a lot of talent that can keep firing along if Gardner Minshew can keep the turnovers to a minimum. The big problem is their defense can’t get off the field. They’re allowing 20.7 first downs/game, 5th-most in the league, to go with their 27.3 points/game, 3rd-most.
They could desperately use a boost on the outside from a guy like Jaylon Johnson or Kristian Fulton. Johnson especially is attractive with his expiring rookie deal, an audition of sorts to fill the hole they left with Stephon Gilmore. At safety, they could dream with Budda Baker but Jeremy Chinn and Kyle Dugger are much more realistic, the former assuming they’re okay with Chinn being on the IR for right now and the latter assuming New England is waving the white flag.
Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-2 (2-1) | Need: EDGE, DB
The Jags are kind of weird because their defense isn’t bad but it’s not the most efficient and they could make improvements that would ripple at every level.
They’re blitzing 32.1% of the time, 8th-most in the league, but only have a 22.7% pressure rate, 17th. Compare that to a team like the Falcons, who bring the house at a 22.5% rate while producing a 28.1% pressure rate. What do they need? Pass rushing.
Luckily, the edge market is bountiful this year. The big names — Danielle Hunter, Chase Young, Brian Burns — will take some assets to move. There’s cheaper options in guys like Denico Autry and Emmanuel Ogbah, who have both seen their snap counts go down this year compared to last. Carl Lawson would be the easiest of all to get; he’s only played 17% of defensive snaps.
The sleeper pick is Josh Uche. He’s perfect as a wide 9 to complement Travon Walker who is more productive inside as a rusher and run stopper or play opposite of Josh Allen.
The Jags also have a need of sorts in the secondary. Darious Williams hasn’t produced similar to the breakout he had last season but upgrading at CB2 or with more depth could help ease the workload. Bryce Hall proved he’s still a serviceable CB after filling in for DJ Reed. I like Jeremy Chinn here too as a two-way safety but if they’re looking for a more conventional coverage guy, a change of scenery for Xavier McKinney could be beneficial for all parties.
New York Jets, 3-3 (1-1) | Need: WR, TE
I put the Jets down here even though I feel like I shouldn’t have. This is more of a fun thought experiment.
By bolstering the receiver room, I really think the Jets can not just survive but live on with Zach Wilson at QB. Allen Lazard hasn’t been bad but he can clearly be upgraded on. The sure-handed slot guys like Renfrow or Bourne come to mind but more size in a Sutton or Marshall is also tempting.
Tight end also seemed like a good spot for the Jets because of their run game. This is a weird one because they have a good pass catcher in Tyler Conklin, who is also an aggressively ungood blocker, but also CJ Uzomah is splitting time between offense and special teams because neither his route running or blocking has been even okay. I think the Jets could or should consider turning the clock back a few years and investing in 12 personnel.
Zach Gentry is lingering on the Bengals’ practice squad despite putting up solid receiving numbers in Pittsburgh while also being a great run blocker. Mo Alie-Cox has fallen to the bottom of Indy’s TE chart and provides a similar element of solid pass catching and even better blocking.
Seattle is rich with both receivers and tight ends who are dual threats. In Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, the Jets have two options to choose from for blocking TEs who can also provide short or medium pass threats. Given their depth, it would be an easy sell, also considering that Seattle would look to flip any assets they get to use in their own Week 7 moves. — Emilio
What's Wrong With The Saints?
I'm not sure what the New Orleans Saints are good at on the football field. There are certainly worse teams. We aren't in Denver or Chicago or Carolina. But the faults in these teams suggest direction. The flaws are fixable. No, to be middling is the worst purgatory to be cursed with in sports.
Derek Carr is not a bad QB. The cannon of an arm from the Raider days hasn't faded. He's decisive with the football where plenty of bad QBs babysit the football in hopes a play opens. He can certainly play like a bad quarterback though. He seems completely oblivious that former all-pro receiver Michael Thomas is even out there. He will frequently overshoot Chris Olave, so much that he'll wind down routes when passes are 15 yards ahead of him. When all else fails, a Kamara checkdown is inevitable and defenses see that. Not to mention, he's suffocating at the line of scrimmage, defenses devouring Carr before he can even identify a play. New Orleans ends up overcompensating on defense to make up for these issues.
The Saints defense looks good on paper. Savvy veterans like Tyrann Mathieu and Marshon Lattimore with explosive young guys like Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor make for a formidable secondary. Cam Jordan is still one of the best defensive lineman in the league. He's lined up alongside the rising stud Carl Granderson, who is growing more aggressive as he gains more reps and opportunities. It's hard to gauge their true value because New Orleans hasn't faced any truly great offenses this year. Aside from a solid outing against the hot hand from CJ Stroud, New Orleans has had a pretty breezy schedule. Smoking the worst QB in football, Mac Jones, doesn't move the needle. They played close games against the winless Panthers and the mediocre Titans. If the talent is there and these are the results, what is the issue?
Game tape suggests this falls on bad coaching from Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. The Saints playcalling is deeply unimaginative; teams have found numerous ways to contend with Alvin Kamara as a dual threat, ditto for deep targets to Olave. Carr is not the football wizard that can turn nothing into something when the offense is stagnant either. The defense cannot be effective when the balance is uneven like this.
Still, this team has the talent and the schedule to sway management from engaging in a fire sale. If anything, they'll likely survey the trade market to see where they can upgrade on the roster. The offensive line could be a lot stronger, Carr has been sacked 18 times this year. But this team is already expensive so any deals made likely detracts from one of their few strong suits. The Saints are immovable. Too good to tank, too bad to prosper, these are the dog days in NOLA. — Caleb
Our Games to Watch for Week 8
Caleb’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-2), 4:25PM
There is a lot to love next week. The Eagles-Commanders game should be great; their last divisional game was a nail biter that went into OT. The Browns/Seahawks could be interesting, if Geno and co. can survive the lethal Cleveland defense, this could be another close one. But the obvious game of the week is the Bengals vs. the 49ers. This is a statement game for Cincy, running into a brick wall in San Francisco. If Burrow can sidestep the pressure from Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, he can prove that the Bengals are still a real threat to make the Super Bowl.
Emilio’s Pick: New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4), 1:00PM
Caleb has been trying really hard to get me into any of the NFC South teams and I was resistant to it at first but I get it now. I had tunnel vision and couldn’t see any of these teams being playoff contenders but that’s kind of missing the point: games involving these teams are either like watching paint dry or they’re totally batshit insane, and it’s usually the latter.
Based on last week’s games, I expect Carr-Minshew to be a shootout for the morning slate akin to watching Marshall-NC State on a random Saturday night. Chris Olave and Michael Pittman are both having really impressive seasons despite shaky or inconsistent QB play.
As Caleb described, the Saints’ pass defense has been stellar but even more surprising is the Colts offense ranking 6th (!) in points per game with 25.4, which is tied with the Chiefs and more than the Lions, Jaguars, and Ravens. The Eagles have looked good still without him but HC Shane Steichen is working magic in Indy.
Stoppable force meets movable object should make for some good sport and great sports entertainment.
All statistics cited from Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats, unless stated otherwise.