Trevor Lawrence's Ankle May Have Just Fucked Up the AFC Playoff Picture
In a year of quarterback injuries, this one may send ripples that'll be felt in February.
The Snap Count is a weekly column by Emilio Calderon and Caleb Catlin where they react to the previous week of NFL games and share their thoughts. In the end, they share what they think are the games to watch for next week’s slate.
Welcome back to the gym. Sorry that we missed last week, Caleb was swamped with work and I got my ass beat by the flu. Fortunately, it passed in relatively breezy fashion and I even got to stay on track with my marathon training. (That’s a thing I’m doing.)
We’ve reached the late stages of the season! The playoff contender bubble is slowly closing and it will close for teams this week. The only team that can be mathematically eliminated are the Carolina Panthers — I feel like they get bullied a lot on this newsletter — c’est la vie — but there are teams who, with a loss, would essentially see their playoff hopes dashed.
This week, I’m gonna be talking the AFC playoff picture. Earlier in the season and even as recently as Thanksgiving, I was lukewarm on the wild card teams but the possibilities have become very interesting now. Later on, Caleb has a short essay on Bryce Young and the mentality of teams drafting in the top spots. — Emilio
The Trevor Lawrence Injury Just Made the AFC Way More Interesting
On Monday Night Football, Trevor Lawrence got the gift of his ankle getting stepped on by one of his lineman late in the fourth quarter. The injury, or moreso Lawrence’s reaction, looked bad in real time and brought on fears that we would be losing another quarterback this season. Lawrence will play again this season but it’s unclear how long he’ll be out or if the Jaguars will risk his health the next two weeks.
If Lawrence isn’t good to go, Jacksonville would be calling on CJ Beathard, Lawrence’s backup for the past three seasons. Coincidentally, like Jake Browning in Cincinnati, Beathard is in a good place as he has familiarity with Doug Pederson’s playcalling and chemistry with the skill group on his side. He looked decent in his cameo on Monday, going 9/10 for 63 yards. Is he good enough to carry this team, especially after the loss of Christian Kirk?
The Jaguars are currently 8-4, just a game ahead of the Colts and the Texans in the AFC South. At 7-5, the Texans should feel good about their playoff chances this late in the season, whether it’s as a division winner or as a wild card team. Unfortunately, if the playoffs started today, they would be the first one out, behind the AFC North teams and the Colts, who took a game off them earlier this season.
Let’s run through the AFC by division. In the North, the Ravens look set to win the division while the rest fight it out. The Steelers and Browns are both 7-5 and the Bengals fought to it 6-6. Both the West and the East have a multiple game leader — the Chiefs and the Dolphins respectively — and one other team at .500 with the rest subpar. Those teams are the Broncos and the Bills respectively.
So, just to recap, as of this week, that leaves us with this.
Division Winners
1. Miami Dolphins: East, 9-3
2. Baltimore Ravens: North, 9-3
3. Kansas City Chiefs: West, 8-4
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: South, 8-4
Wild Card Teams
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-5
6. Cleveland Browns: 7-5
7. Indianapolis Colts: 7-5
The Bubble Teams
Houston Texans: 7-5
Denver Broncos: 6-6
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-6
Buffalo Bills: 6-6
Coincidentally, this week will see six of these teams face off with each other. The Colts are visiting the Bengals, the Browns are hosting the Jaguars, and the Bills are playing in Kansas City again. The Texans and the Broncos are facing under-.500 teams in the Jets and the Chargers respectively.
This week is make-or-break for Buffalo. Sliding under .500 with a loss would reduce their chances of making the playoffs to just about 1%. To do it, they’ll have to improve on their ugly 1-4 aay record, which includes the infamous opening day loss to the Jets and conceding 29 points to the Patriots. They face a Chiefs team that is playing for seeding and is 4-1 at home this season.
By the end of Week 14, it’s possible that the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans could all sit at 8-5. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker over the Colts but not the Texans. Houston also only has one divisional win versus four and three for the other teams mentioned but they have to play Tennessee twice later on this season.
In the case of Jacksonville, this week is where their road diverges. A win puts them in much more control of their destiny and leaves them a path towards potentially being the third seed. For Cleveland, a win means keeping pace with Pittsburgh and staying in control of their own destiny.
In both conferences, it appears the fight for wild card spots will go down to the wire. This week appears to be the most consequential for how the dominoes will fall. It’s possible we see the three teams in right now through the end, or we could even see three different teams including a new division leader in the South.
Mathematically speaking, the Jaguars are more likely to win the division than they are to fall into the wild card. However, one or two losses with Trevor Lawrence out not only means risking the division but also falling into a lower wild card spot. Did I mention that Jacksonville plays Baltimore in Week 15? — Emilio
Bryce Young, or The Busts vs. The System
I am still not sure if Bryce Young is actually bad. I was inclined to say yes ever since the Carolina Panthers drafted him with the first overall pick. I was skeptical of his success at Alabama, a 5’10 QB with the keys to the kingdom. He was flanked by a formidable O-line, a consistently strong defense and a number of targets to alleviate the pressure. Yet, he still lost very winnable games against Texas A&M and Tennessee. He’d try to shoot his way out of rough games against LSU and Georgia. Cakewalks against lesser teams doesn’t prove anything to me other than the basic attributes needed to make it on the college level.
This season with the Panthers is strange. It doesn’t necessarily confirm my suspicions of Young. The Carolina O-line is the worst in the league, save for the New York Giants. He is being sacked an average of 4 times a game this season. When he’s not going down with the football, he’s splitting his touchdowns and interceptions with 9 a piece. They are at the bottom of the league in offense AND defense. It must be jarring to go from the pristine and efficient Roll Tide to the wild fire in Carolina.
It speaks to a larger disparity between the player and the systems they inherit. Is it the player’s fault when a system is so fundamentally incorrect? How can we really ponder the qualities of a QB like Kenny Pickett if he was under the Matt Canada tree? The players are, at least initially, held captive to the marching orders from the sideline. The integration process favors the institution far more than a player’s general strengths. You’d think these things would sort themselves out in the draft room.
It makes you wonder how many of these players were truly busts, incapable of playing a professional football team, and those who were doomed from the moment they took a practice field. Sure, you could chop these guys up to system players in a college environment. But when has it been acceptable to let a bad system off the hook?
Therein lies the age old question scouts ask themselves: are you drafting for talent or are you drafting for fit? It is rare to be able to stick any QB in and expect them to float their system to greatness. It is a disservice to drown young offensive prospects and assume the raw talent will make up for a malnourished scheme. Maybe it will be a Bryce Young issue, even after all of the team's faults are addressed. More likely, a team like the Carolina Panthers need to look inward, consider that they are wasting careers away. — Caleb
Our Games to Watch for Week 14
Caleb’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3), 8:20PM
Let’s not overthink this. It's Cowboys-Eagles. Dallas has to make an example of Philadelphia, especially as Hurts and Sirianni are atop the NFC East. At some point, the Cowboys have to assert themselves as someone to take seriously in the playoffs. The jokes have to subside. Taking down the winningest team in the league AND their division rival would silence any skepticism.
A similar notion goes for Philly. The record suggests otherwise but there are question marks around the Eagles. Beating Dallas after being embarrassed by the 49ers the week prior resolidifies them as the conference favorites.
Emilio’s Pick: Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), 4:25PM
This matchup has had its fair share of the spotlight the past three years. On Sunday, it will be in that light again, but the feeling is very different from previous meetings. The winner of this matchup has generally been perceived as the top dog of the AFC for the past three seasons. Now, these are teams in the dog days fighting out of desperation.
Don’t read me wrong, the Chiefs are gonna win the AFC West. Even with all their problems, which are mostly on offense, they’re comfortably better than the other teams in the division. Whether or not they’re comfortably better than their potential opponent in the wild card round may be answered this weekend.
I’ve said all season the Bills give me bad vibes. Not in the normal sense, I generally like Bills fans and don’t mind their team. But in terms of predicting who’s playing for the Lombardi? These guys? Hard to believe. But hey, these are the kind of games where those kinds of opinions turn.
This really is a game of juju. Is the Mahomes magic strong enough? This skill group has been really bad outside of Isiah Pacheco on the ground and in the air, Kelce or occasionally Rashee Rice. On the other hand, Josh Allen’s cannon is running out of ammo. Is time up for this iteration of the Bills to win? It’s plausible that neither of these teams has a significant impact on the playoffs, which would have been crazy to say in August!
For maximum chaos, just look out for these things. Watch Gabe Davis any time he runs a vertical, any special teams play involving Kadarius Toney, and watch Chris Jones on any Buffalo third down.
All statistics cited from Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats, unless stated otherwise.