HERE WE GOOOOO... A Dallas Cowboys Story
Rayne Dakota Prescott is at it again. We recap a wild week 14.
The Snap Count is a weekly column by Emilio Calderon and Caleb Catlin where they react to the previous week of NFL games and share their thoughts. In the end, they share what they think are the games to watch for next week’s slate.
Are the Cowboys Finally Legit?
*sigh* How 'bout them Cowboys?
It brings me little joy to eat my words about Dallas. They are an extremely bipolar football team; the kind of squad to drop stupid games to a rebuilding Arizona Cardinals team one week and dominate a Super Bowl team the next. It spans further than this year too. They are usually flaunted by strong defenses, sturdy o-lines, and endless weapons for their franchise QB Dak Prescott. But with all their blessings, they drop dumb losses in the wild card. It's maddening.
In the ultimate year of parity, however, these Cowboys are primed for a real run to the big stage in February. As alluded to earlier, Dallas has played extremely well against their division rivals and top contenders in the NFL. After complaining about the referees in their first matchup against Philadelphia in week 9, the Cowboys stomped out the Eagles in primetime 33-13. They went blow for blow and came out on top against the feisty Seattle Seahawks. When pitted against other NFC East teams, Dallas thwarts them with ease.
This is in large part to the Cowboys' loaded defense. The big name to come from their strong year is 2022 5th rounder Daron Bland, the King of pick 6's. Trevon Diggs' season ending ACL injury was supposed to be a deadly blow to their secondary but Bland stepped in and asserted himself as one of the best defensive backs in the league. He leads the league in interceptions (8, 5 of which turned into touchdowns) and tied for 6th in pass deflections (14). Combine a rejuvenated secondary with a strong year from Micah Parsons and solid outings from Demarcus Lawrence and Johnathan Hankins, these Cowboys are the 3rd best defense in the league (289.9 yards averaged).
On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott has played incredible football this year. In years past, I've likened him to Kirk Cousins, a strong numbers guy with a solid arm but not a winning QB. But this year, he's stood strong and unshaken when the pocket collapses. He's thrown 3500 yards and 28 touchdowns on 6 interceptions for the year. He's staring down defecits and tight ball games with less of a frantic mindset than in past years. His only bad game was against the best defense in the league in San Francisco (3 interceptions, 51.6 QBR). If forced to pick a QB in this year's MVP race, it's him (it's damn sure not Brock Purdy, he's not even most valuable on his own team when Christian Mcaffery is there).
In the end, though, there is still room for my Cowboys skepticism. There is 20 years worth of flimsy coaching and playoff crumbling. While Coach McCarthy has Lombardi trophy credentials, the jury is still out on whether or not he is piggy backing off of one great year with Aaron Rodgers. They also still have to prove strong enough to topple the virtually spotless San Francisco 49ers, who torched Dallas 42-10 in Week 5. But if it's any year to win it all, this is the one. — Caleb
The AFC Has Officially Gone Looney Tunes
Last week, I talked big picture in the AFC after the Trevor Lawrence injury and how this week’s results would drastically change the look of the wild card race. Just to recap, going into Week 14, we were looking at the Chiefs and the Jaguars leading the West and the South respectively both at 8-4. In the wild card, we had four teams all at 7-5 in the Steelers, Browns, Colts, and Texans. Below them, the “bubble” teams, we had the Broncos, Bengals, and Bills all at 6-6.
The Jaguars opted to trot out Lawrence against the Browns, bad ankle and all, but their gamble didn’t pay off. Evan Engram had a heroic day racking up 11 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns but Lawrence got picked off three times as the Jags narrowly lost 31-27. No rest for the weary either as they have the Ravens coming up. Doug Pederson has a big choice on his hands: does he risk Lawrence again or does he trust the process and give him the week before going hard for the rest of the season?
If you haven’t seen what happened in Kansas City, you missed an all-timer. The Bills and the Chiefs had an uncharacteristically scrappy game that ended up 20-17. Buffalo won in spite of Sean McDermott’s truly awful play calling. Late in the fourth quarter, near the KC red zone, they managed to run six plays that only took the clock from 2:23… to 1:57. They called five consecutive pass plays. Several angels wept. Tyler Bass kicked a go-ahead FG. Craziness ensues.
Thanks to a Rashee Rice catch, the Chiefs find themselves on the Buffalo 49 with 1:25 to go. Then, Looney Tunes. Patrick Mahomes finds Travis Kelce in a seam over the right side. Kelce cuts back infield and avoids a tackle before lateraling the ball to the opposite side of the field to Kadarius Toney, who jogs into the endzone… only for the play to be called back because Toney himself was lined up in the neutral zone. The Chiefs proceeded to gain no yards and turn the ball over on downs.
The Jags and the Chiefs still sit atop their divisions. Again, the Chiefs have the benefit of the doubt with how poor the AFC West has been this season though the season has evolved from the division being a given to the Broncos having a non-zero chance of contending. Meanwhile, the Jaguars now have reason to worry with both the Colts and Texans only one game behind them. Could mean nothing by then but worth noting: they end the season against the Titans, who have new life with rookie QB Will Levis.
Speaking of the Broncos, they have a chance to push the Chiefs off their AFC West perch or pip a wild card spot because a dominant win over a sad Chargers team has them sitting pretty at 7-6. They’re one of now six teams going into Week 15 with a 7-6 record.
The Browns were the big winners of Week 14 with their shootout win against Jacksonville. They’re now the sole AFC Wild Card team with a record of 8-5. Below them is a huge mess that could shake out so many ways. The Steelers, Colts, Texans, Broncos, Bengals, and Bills all sit at 7-6. Before you ask: yes, at least two of these teams face off against each other again.
Week 15 has the Steelers visiting the Colts, meaning at least one of these teams will have to fall back to a .500 record. Sandwiching that game on this season’s first Saturday slate are two games with playoff implications in both conferences: the Bengals host the now Nick Mullens-led Vikings while the Broncos are away to the Lions.
Cleveland has a trap game where they host Justin Fields and the Bears. It feels equally realistic that we get a flat Chicago offensive performance or another Justin Fields boom-or-bust game. The Bears have only allowed 25 points over their last two games. The Texans also have a tough division game away to Tennessee. They’re not mathematically eliminated, but at 5-8, the Titans feel too far away. Facing Houston twice in three weeks could definitely fuck up somebody’s playoff chances though.
I’ve been trying to stay unbiased and stick with the big picture but I just have to say this: Joe Flacco is good! It could come crashing down but they got his old ass doing RPOs! Throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns, even if it was against this Jags secondary, isn’t something to scoff at. On the basis of this one game, it’s enough for me to see that the Browns offense has more of a ceiling with him compared to Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker, a ceiling that makes me believe again they can win a game or even two in the playoffs.
All this in consideration, the most intriguing game involving an AFC playoff-hunting team is happening in Buffalo. The Bills host a red hot Cowboys team who have averaged 40.2 points per game over their last five games. This is a tough out for a Cowboys team whose three losses this season have all come on the road but I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: this Bills team has such weird vibes and personally, I think this is their make-or-break game.
So, in case you got lost, this is what we’re looking at in the AFC playoff picture.
The Chiefs, Jaguars, and Browns all sit at 8-5.
The Steelers, Colts, Texans, Broncos, Bengals, and Bills all sit at 7-6.
Based on the head-to-head and conference record tiebreakers, those teams qualify in that order — so, as of now, the Steelers and the Colts are with in the Browns in the Wild Card spots.
So, what does that mean for this week?
At least one team involved in Steelers-Colts will be 8-6 and the other 7-7.
If the Jaguars and Chiefs both lose this week, they could end the week tied for their division lead.
As of now, the Browns own the tiebreaker over every other team in the Wild Card picture other than the Steelers and would be in a Wild Card spot whether they win or lose.
Five teams could end Week 15 with a record of 8-6… or 7-7.
It’s almost January. Embrace the chaos. — Emilio
Our Games to Watch for Week 15
Caleb’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), 8:20PM
There's a slate of intriguing oddball games this week. The Packers vs Buccaneers is the battle of the mid tier, where the former is scrapping to inch into the wild card and the latter is clawing for their division spot despite a depressing 6-7 record. The Broncos have a legitimate claim to topple the Lions.
However, the real draw is the Ravens-Jaguars. Jacksonville gets another dose of an AFC North defense for the 2nd week in a row. These kinds of trials will indicate the Jags' true legitimacy, if Doug Pederson's trickery is strong enough to topple the ironclad Ravens. There's a real question lies with Trevor Lawrence. He played through a high ankle sprain against Cleveland. I'm curious how Jacksonville looks without him or, irresponsibly, if they plan on trotting him out against the 10-3 Ravens.
Emilio’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7), 8:15PM (MNF)
Despite boasting two very different records, both of these avian teams have serious vibes problems and their seasons are getting off the rails. The Eagles have gone from inevitable conference winner to potentially playing on the road in the playoffs. The Seahawks are in danger of missing out on mid-to-late January football entirely after four straight losses took them from 6-3 to 6-7. They’re also still dealing with Geno Smith’s groin injury that kept him out of the Niners game; it seems likely that they will have to put Drew Lock under center again.
All statistics cited from Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats, unless stated otherwise.